The Next American Century: How the U.S. Can Thrive as Other Powers Rise

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But this is a rare moment in history: none of the world's big powers is our adversaries. In The Next American Century, Nina Hachigian and Mona Sutphen show that the "pivotal powers" -- China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia -- seek greater influence, but each has an enormous stake in the world economy and a keen desire to thwart common threats. India is a key ally in the struggle against terrorism. China's help is essential to containing pandemic disease. Russia is leading an effort to keep nuclear devices out of terrorists' hands. Japan and Europe are critical partners in tackling climate change. None of these countries is a direct military or ideological challenger. In fact, their gains largely help, rather than hurt, America's continuing prosperity, growth, and, to some extent, even its values. Will we have conflicts with these powers? Definitely. Some will be serious. But, by and large, they want what we want: a stable world and better lives for their citizens. We live in an era of opportunity, not of loss.

To take advantage of this moment, the United States must get its own house in order, making sure that American children can compete, American workers can adjust, America's military remains cutting-edge, and American diplomacy entices rather than alienates. While America must be prepared for the possibility that a hostile superpower may one day emerge, it has to be careful not to turn a distant, uncertain threat into an immediate one. Washington should welcome the pivotal powers into a vigorous international order to share the burden of solving pressing global problems of peace, climate, health, and growth.

The avenue to a truly safer and more prosperous world runs through the pivotal powers. With them, we can build a world where Americans will thrive, today and tomorrow.

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While pivotal powers sees themselves as vulnerable, they seek prestige and influence and freedom to maneuver within their own regions. seems to care about its principles only when its own economic interests are helped. Moreover, America can not hinder the growth of rising powers. Competition for eyeballs can lead to sensationalist, fear-based and personalized reporting. "All the big powers are in the same economic boat, and no one wants to rock it too hard". That the fear of terrorism often prevents entrepreneurial-minded foreigners from moving here is a mistake, in their view. Generally, they see the media as irresponsible.The authors recommend America stick to its strengths: innovation, toleration of failure, political stability, embrace of foreigners.

"These threats could directly kill hundreds of thousands of Americans or more on U.S. soil, and could occur soon", and I agree (for interested readers, see my tough non-partisan terrorism prevention strategy below). Everybody wants a secure economic order. They benefit from a militarily strong America. Deficits are dangerous; productivity growth is the linchpin.

They're not seeking to dethrone America, but want a more multi-polar world.Both authors criticize American foreign policy for being clumsy, hypocritical, dysfunctional. There isn't much to gain by conquering land, they argue, although I think this assumes conquerors will treat victims kindly (history has numerous counter-examples, unfortunately). They would prefer to see the United Nations security council seating to reflect this emerging reality, with Britain and France merged into one seat for Europe, and India and Japan given seats.America and the rising pivotal powers share common interests. Their priorities (economic growth, terrorism prevention) are in line with America's. Pivotal powers are economic rivals, not enemies.Everybody can thrive if cool heads prevail. America shouldn't create foreign demons but rather slay those at home. The media formula seems to be: violence + heroism + scandal + readily identifiable victims + conflict.

America often prefers to work with dictators rather than friendly democracies. So the authors counsel against over-preparing for one scenario when the world changes so fast. Congress is susceptible to lobbying by a Defense Department with 2500 worldwide military installations which showers the Hill with cash.The media is likely to demonize big powers, in their view. Their economies are so tightly interwoven that war would be expensive and detrimental. Blogs like DailyKos can undermine the power of foreign correspondents to relay impartial stories. A sensible and thought-provoking foreign policy strategy which is, for the most part, balanced and smart, with a few controversial suggestions.The authors envision a world with a declining (in relative terms) but still dominant United States, joined by so-called pivotal powers -- China, India, Europe, Russia, Japan.

They recommend pivotal powers establish an international court (not in Brussels -- too European) to prosecute terrorists.And America's biggest threat. Invest wisely; don't overspend on weapons which offer a small incremental value. And the American public ignores foreign policy until it becomes a crisis. "American efforts to promote liberal democracy continue to be undermined by its own hypocrisy and inconsistency", they write. as being in the driver's seat in setting the tone and direction of bilateral relationships.

I think American foreign policy is beset by serious structural problems since only one overburdened and partisan official (the president) has the most influence; an incompetent, distracted and partisan president can wreak havoc on intelligent diplomacy, and that only Constitutional fixes can correct these deficiencies. They see the U.S. The six powers can help each other battle common menaces like terrorism. The media focus on newsertainment and sound bites and can inflame popular panic and hostility. Iran is an aspiring regional power. Time-pressed lawmakers can't understand issues deeply and may find it easier to scapegoat a country rather than solve a problem. While they can express bitter frustration with American disregard for established rules of the system, they're more likely to distrust each other than the U.S.

Sulcerauthor of "Common Sense II: How to Prevent the Three Types of Terrorism" (Amazon/Kindle)soon free electronically via Google Books and Project Gutenberg By working with pivotal powers, America can box in Iran, end genocide in Sudan, and work to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. It's noteworthy their list didn't include Brazil (which lacks an international focus despite having a strong economy). America must get its own fiscal house in order. "America's fiscal mess, under-performing education system, oil dependency, broken health care system, inadequate worker protection, and crumbling infrastructure are all things America needs to fix." They suggest America build strong ties with each pivotal power without scaring them -- a tricky task -- and avoid self-perpetuating rivalries if possible. A coalition of defense contractors, hawks, and critics of human rights record can unfairly criticize a nation like China.

"Europeans talk about the standoff over control of the Suez Canal as though it happened yesterday." They add: "America's view of itself as well-meaning, reluctant to use force, and vulnerable contrasts sharply with the view among billions of citizens in pivotal power countries of America as self-centered, stingy, trigger-happy, and invincible."The authors criticize Congressional meddling in foreign policy ("535 cooks in the kitchen"). Congresspersons are tempted to make extreme statements as a ploy for coverage. "We literally own pieces of each other's economies" they write. It's a large-scale terrorist incident with a weapon of mass destruction or a major pandemic. The U.S. They write: ".foreign policy is too often the wall flower at the Washington policy dance." Exactly.Unlike America, pivotal powers have long memories.

Military procurement policy. America needs to work with foreign intelligence services, and work with the United Nations and the World Health Organization to help failing states.Overall, a smart, sensible, cool-headed and realistic foreign policy strategy which emphasizes cooperation.Thomas W.

It is intellectually simplistic to assume that 'pivotal powers,' as the authors call China, Europe, India, Japan and Russia, are in a zero-sum competition with the US. The authors of this book see clearly, adroitly recognizing dangers and difficulties, while identifying common purpose in concrete and productive goals. I found myself nodding as I read this book, sometimes emphatically, as I took it all in. I lived and worked in China for many years, and it perpetually surprised me how many Americans I met on visits back home thought that China was a threat and an enemy to American prosperity. It does not dictate, nor bully. And yet a lot of debate in this country does indeed assume that the rise of others must mean the demise of us. China can look scary to outsiders, who are unaware of the depth of its own internal challenges, or of the sincerity of its desire for safe growth and self-respect.

Jointly fighting terrorism with India ought to be a priority over taking sides in Kashmir.This book offers some hope, in a perplexing and terrifying world, that the US can play a sharply more constructive role as a leader in the coming years. It makes so much sense, I thought, that the United States can best thrive if it makes strategic allies, instead of enemies, out of the world's other powers. Cooperating with China to contain pandemic disease, for instance, makes more sense that arguing over whether Taiwan should be independent or not. Instead, the authors write persuasively, the US will be better off if it can recognize the obvious benefits of cooperating and coordinating mutual advantages with these powers, and acting with intelligence and generosity. I gradually came to see that such belief was more fear and less perception of reality. A true leader inspires, cajoles and blazes a safer path. May cooler heads, like the two who wrote this book, prevail.

The first line in the book is."On December 13, 2001, two months and two days after the attack on September 11." This should read three months and two days after the attack, not two months. Too picky. Maybe but it creates a credibility problem from the outset.

i really liked this book. simple in a good way. clear, interesting, thought provoking, i keep thinking about it, and i finished last week. i hope lots of americans read it, because if more americans could understand foriegn policy from this point of view, i think they would be way more constructive world citizens.

Hachigian and Sutphen are among the brightest minds in America's relationship to its foreign policy. For those who want to understand what role America will play in global politics and issues, this book is a "must read." The authors have clearly explained how we will need to get along with all emerging powers in addition to China and India, and still maintain our status as a leader. They offer strong optimism for the future by ridding the discussion of agendized politics and commonplace fear. This book should be read by every thinking American who believes in a positive future.